• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0360

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, May 05, 2018 00:54:15
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    ACUS11 KWNS 050054
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050053
    NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-050230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0360
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0753 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

    Areas affected...Central and northeast VT

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 76...

    Valid 050053Z - 050230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 76 continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong/damaging wind gusts are the primary severe-weather
    threat through 9:30 PM across central and northeast Vermont.

    DISCUSSION...At 0040Z, mosaic radar imagery showed the fast-moving
    line of storms extending from extreme northern NH through northeast
    to southwest VT. These storms continue to advance quickly east at
    40-50 kt and should pose mainly a severe wind threat until the
    portion of the line exits northeast and central VT by around 0130Z.
    A tornado cannot be ruled out, given the presence of strong
    low-level shear (effective SRH of 400-500 m2/s2) in central and
    northern VT. However, a further increase of surface-based
    inhibition expected this evening, given the loss of daytime heating,
    should begin to limit this latter threat. Otherwise, a more stable
    environment located from far eastern NH into ME should limit the
    eastern extent of the severe-weather threat.

    ..Peters.. 05/05/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...

    LAT...LON 43557324 45037333 45007148 44567161 44177204 43547244
    43557324



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 15, 2019 04:34:02
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 150433
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150433
    VTZ000-NYZ000-150630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0360
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1133 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

    Areas affected...Central and Northeastern New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 150433Z - 150630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A wind damage threat may develop across parts of central
    and northeastern New York over the next hour or two. The threat is
    expected to remain isolated but weather watch issuance can still not
    be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front located
    in west-central New York extending southward into central
    Pennsylvania. A 993 mb low is analyzed in western New York with a
    warm front extending east-southeastward across central and
    southeastern New York. The northern end of a linear MCS extends
    northward to just east of Lake Ontario on the north side of the warm
    front where instability is weak. In spite of this, a 50 to 65 kt
    low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP in central New York which is
    contributing to very strong wind profiles. Due to the strong deep
    layer evident on the Burlington and Albany WSR-88D VWPs, the
    northern end of the line could have a severe threat over the next
    couple of hours. Isolated wind damage would be the primary threat
    along bowing portions of the line.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 04/15/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 44137625 43517625 43207607 42607450 42677357 43497324
    44467343 44647466 44437567 44137625



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