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ACUS11 KWNS 101530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101530 COR
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101715-
Mesoscale Discussion 1558
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018
Areas affected...Central and eastern FL Peninsula to northwest FL
and southwest GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...
Valid 101530Z - 101715Z
CORRECTED FOR PROPER HURRICANE.
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado risk will continue to increase within the rain
bands spreading inland through the afternoon from the central
Florida Panhandle to northwest Florida and southwest Georgia, as
Hurricane Michael approaches the Florida Panhandle.
DISCUSSION...At 1520Z, Hurricane Michael was centered approximately
50 SSW of KPFN, with mosaic radar imagery showing three to four rain
bands extending as far east as the northwest FL coast and inland
across the FL portions of WW 406, and recently into southwest GA.
Current track of Michael is to the north-northeast per latest NHC
guidance. Trends in low-level SRH per objective analyses indicated
more than sufficient values for embedded storm rotation within the
rain bands, with SRH expected to increase inland across north FL and
southern GA this afternoon, as Michael moves inland.
Strong low-level shear located in closer proximity to the center of
Michael to near approximately the longitude of KAAF with effective
SRH of 500-800 m2/s2 will support a tornado threat. Although
rotational couplets through the late morning had been relatively
weak and transient across the offshore gulf waters, south of TLH,
recent radar trends suggest a little stronger couplets may be trying
to develop near and south of Taylor County. Meanwhile, effective
SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 across the far northeast Gulf into northwest FL
combined with greater instability will also favor low-level storm
rotation, as have been observed with the rain band located 25-40
miles west of the northwest FL coast.
..Peters.. 10/10/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...
LAT...LON 30648581 31518496 31928438 31798304 30858287 30548268
29848270 29248239 28158275 28148377 28478378 28888404
28858417 28688459 28638527 28888590 29498609 30038606
30648581
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