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ACUS11 KWNS 041819
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041818
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-041945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Fri May 04 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern NY...VT...NH...and far western
ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 041818Z - 041945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for a few tornadoes is increasing this
afternoon, and damaging winds will become likely with a line of
thunderstorms moving in from the west. Tornado watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...A sub-996 mb surface low over Lake Michigan as of 18Z
will continue developing northeastward into southern Ontario/Quebec
this afternoon as a compact mid-level shortwave trough evident on
water vapor satellite imagery moves over the same general area.
Recent subjective surface analysis shows a warm front extending
eastward from the low across northern NY/VT into central NH. A moist
low-level airmass characterized by dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s
exists to the south of the front. Current expectations are for the
warm front to lift northward to the international border through the
remainder of the afternoon. Even though some mid/high-level clouds
are present across this region, filtered diurnal heating has allowed
surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 70s across
central NY. Although mid-level lapse rates remain generally modest
(around 6-6.5 degrees C/km in the 700-500 mb layer), they are
sufficient coupled with the diurnal heating to support MLCAPE up to
1000 J/kg this afternoon and early evening.

A very strong mid-level jet of 80-100+ kt will overspread this
region through peak heating, and effective bulk shear values of
50-70 kt will strongly favor updraft rotation with any thunderstorms
that can form along the warm front or within the open warm sector.
The threat for a few tornadoes should be focused along and just
south of the warm front, namely northern NY into VT and parts of NH,
where effective SRH values will likely exceed 250 m2/s2.

Damaging winds, perhaps widespread, will also be a substantial
concern as a line of thunderstorms will likely move from west to
east across this region through 02-03Z along/ahead of a cold front.

..Gleason/Hart.. 05/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 44357593 44847540 45077490 45097163 45327136 45417107
45187086 44017092 43587114 43087145 42907229 42857335
42927426 43167527 43427564 43957590 44357593



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ACUS11 KWNS 142157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142157
PAZ000-NYZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-142300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Areas affected...Eastern ohio...Western Pennsylvania...and far
southwest New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 142157Z - 142300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will be needed soon across
western Pennsylvania and far southwest New York.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms have developed along a pre-frontal
trough across Ohio ahead of a 990mb surface low analyzed between
Columbus and Akron. The strongest storms may be producing damaging
winds at this time. A 20Z PIT sounding is a good proximity sounding
for the environment ahead of these storms. Buoyancy is quite weak
with MLCAPE only around 200 J/kg substituting current surface
observations into the 20Z sounding. Clearing ahead of these storms
may allow temperatures to warm slightly during the next hour, but as
the boundary layer deepens, surface dewpoints may fall a few degrees
due to mixing which would keep buoyancy weak into the evening.
However, despite this meager instability, the wind profile remains
very supportive of all severe weather hazards with effective shear
around 70 knots and 0 to 1 km SRH over 500 m2/s2. This threat will
likely be maximized near the warm front in northern Pennsylvania and
southern New York where backed surface flow, and higher dewpoints
are expected to remain. South of the Pennsylvania border, dewpoints
have mixed into the mid 50s which has limited instability to less
than 100 J/kg which has greatly reduced the severe threat.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 04/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41678128 42108072 42387965 42447823 41937770 41177766
40737786 40047846 39587930 39438011 39738094 40558141
41678128



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