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ACUS11 KWNS 071833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071833
ILZ000-MOZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1536
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Missouri...central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071833Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected across the area, with at
least isolated severe possible. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
threat, though some risk for strong low-level rotation/a brief
tornado exists for storms interacting with a frontal zone.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong storms, with a multicellular storm
mode, have recently initiated along/just south of a differential
heating boundary in central Missouri. These storms are traversing an
airmass thermodynamically characterized by relatively poor
tropospheric lapse rates (6 C/km or less), but deep low-level
moisture (with latest RAP PFCs indicating PWAT values exceeding
1.5-1.75 inches and near saturated conditions extending up to 850
mb). Strong heating is underway downstream of the storms in
east-central Missouri into central Illinois, with temperatures
reaching well into the 80s, with MLCAPE values rapidly surpassing
1500-2000 J/kg across much of the discussion area.

With storms expected to remain mainly multicellular in nature, wet
downbursts and associated damaging wind gusts are expected to be the
primary threat. Modest low to mid-level flow is in place, with
strong veering noted in the 500-1000 m layer, resulting in SRH
exceeding 100-150 m2/s2 in both 0-1 km, and in the effective layer.
As such, the more dominant, discrete updrafts may have the
propensity to rotate and demonstrate supercellular characteristics,
perhaps bearing the risk for a brief tornado. This may especially be
the case for any storm that can traverse the differential heating
boundary for longer periods of time, with undisturbed inflow.

Still, the severe threat is expected to remain rather isolated in
nature, and a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 37639162 37599205 37929295 38469323 38859243 39199148
39758901 39608879 39138890 38219009 37639162



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