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ACUS11 KWNS 070222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070221
TXZ000-NMZ000-070315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0921 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...

Valid 070221Z - 070315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397
continues.

SUMMARY...A localized, transient severe threat may continue past the
expiration of Watch 397, but the limited nature of the threat should
preclude new watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of marginal supercell structures persists
across the western Permian Basin late this evening, perhaps aided by
a nocturnally augmented 10-20 kt increase in 1km AGL southerly flow.
The 00Z MAF sounding sampled relatively steep 700-500mb lapse rates,
such that a few of these cells (or any new development) may briefly
approach severe limits. Still, marginal mid-level flow/shear should
limit cell organization and the resultant severe threat. Therefore,
new watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Picca.. 10/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MAF...

LAT...LON 31260441 31930457 32490448 32580409 32540370 32530276
32340214 31890200 31440232 31220282 30960397 31260441



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