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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1533

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, October 06, 2018 21:58:34
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 062158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 062158
    OKZ000-TXZ000-062330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1533
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0458 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

    Areas affected...Parts of North Texas and southern/eastern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 062158Z - 062330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of storms may briefly be capable of severe hail
    and/or damaging wind gusts into this evening. Watch issuance is not
    expected though.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along within a
    sub-tropical moisture plume extending across the southern Plains
    this afternoon. A combination of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg (based
    on forecast and modified 12Z soundings) and modest, somewhat
    unidirectional deep-layer flow may foster transient stronger cores
    into this evening, as cells continue to develop near a surface
    front. The primary threats with such cells could be isolated
    damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. While isolated cells may
    exhibit some tendency to move rightward (persisting within the warm,
    unstable sector), deep-layer flow should force a majority of cells
    to become elevated atop the frontal surface. This factor, along with
    a lack of greater cell organization, is forecast to limit the severe
    threat, and a watch is not expected.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 10/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 34549503 33919543 32709880 32539946 32779963 33059955
    33439910 34629732 36519542 36419485 35629471 34549503



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