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ACUS11 KWNS 061909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061909
TXZ000-NMZ000-062145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1531
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Areas affected...Far southeast New Mexico...portions of southwest
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061909Z - 062145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least scattered strong storms are expected to develop
through the remainder of the afternoon. A few severe storms are
possible, with large hail and damaging winds the primary threats.
Timing for greatest severe risk is uncertain and convective trends
are being monitored for a possible WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Clearing across much of the discussion area has led to
the heating of a moist low-level airmass, beneath modest mid-level
lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km), where 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values have
become common. As temperatures have climbed into the upper 70s/lower
80s, little convective inhibition remains, with initiation underway
(Otero County, NM and Terrell County, TX). As an upper-level jet
streak and associated mid-level vort max rapidly traverse the base
of a longwave trough across the Four Corners region, deep-layer
ascent will begin to overspread the discussion area, leading to an
increase in convective development.

At least 30 knots of effective bulk shear is present across the
area, and some increase is expected later this afternoon/evening as
the jet streak/vort max approaches. Given the mediocre low-level
shear and modest deep-layer kinematic fields/aforementioned
buoyancy, at least isolated instances of large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be possible. This may especially be the case for
surface-based storms that can remain rooted within the boundary
layer south of a sagging cold front, currently located along an
east-west oriented line, from Gaines to Jones Counties in TX.

Given the uncertainties of severe coverage and details on timing
regarding the peak severe threat, convective trends will continue to
be monitored for the possibility of a WW issuance.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 10/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 29930420 30570442 31630534 32220563 32660521 33170409
32840305 32830175 32630102 31860068 30760144 29900192
29740258 29840365 29930420



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