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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1529

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, October 06, 2018 00:45:01
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 060044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 060044
    KSZ000-060215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1529
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of southwest/central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 060044Z - 060215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will continue to pose a primary
    threat of large hail this evening, although strong gusty winds will
    be possible too. Still, the severe threat is not expected to be
    organized enough to necessitate a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Aided by enhanced convergence/isentropic ascent along a
    composite cold front/outflow boundary, a cluster of strong to severe
    storms has expanded across central Kansas this evening. As the
    low-level jet further intensifies this evening, a few more cells may
    develop to the southwest, generally in the direction of Dodge City.

    The 00Z DDC sounding sampled around 50 kt of west/southwest 500mb
    flow, which is supporting some initial supercellular evolution.
    Combined with MLCAPE upwards of 2000 J/kg, instances of large hail
    appear possible. However, south/southeastward advance of the front,
    combined with some dry air and nocturnal inhibition slowing parcel
    ascent slightly, should lead to cells becoming progressively
    elevated atop the frontal surface. Therefore, the overall severe
    threat should be limited enough to preclude watch issuance.

    ..Picca/Thompson.. 10/06/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37839907 37729982 37740033 37880034 38050014 38319984
    38789927 39499852 39709812 39739783 39719731 39529701
    39189688 38269760 37839907



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