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ACUS11 KWNS 051939
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051939
IAZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Fri Oct 05 2018

Areas affected...northeast Kansas...southeast Nebraska...northern Missouri...and southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051939Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will increase
gradually through the afternoon and evening. The primary threat will
be hail, but gusty winds cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A surface warm front across central/northern Kansas and
central Missouri will continue to lift northward through the
afternoon before stalling and returning southward as a cold front
overnight. Although the airmass should remain capped to the south of
the front, continued isentropic ascent to the north of the front
will allow for a gradual increase in favorable conditions for strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms.

Presently, thunderstorms are ongoing across northeast Kansas,
southeast Nebraska, and southern Iowa. These thunderstorms appear to
be rooted somewhere between 850-700 millibars, along or just north
of the frontal surface. Continued south-southwesterly flow through
this layer will continue to tap into a CAPE reservoir across
southern Kansas, that is being sustained by unseasonably warm
surface temperatures (in the upper-80s) and lower-tropospheric
moisture (dewpoints in the upper-60s to low-70s).

Through this afternoon, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is a
little bit uncertain given the continued weakening/veering low-level
jet. However, belief is that enough isentropic ascent will occur to
result in at least isolated convection, which would be capable of
hail. Later this evening, with the diurnally augmented increase in
the low-level jet, and increasing deep-layer ascent stemming from
the western United States trough, confidence is higher in the
coverage of thunderstorms -- some possibly severe. The primary
threat this evening should still be hail, but given the increase in
the low-level jet and a surface front in the vicinity, a brief
tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out.

..Marsh/Guyer.. 10/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 39029813 40469703 41609601 42189467 42249261 41669107
40399122 39319369 38219573 38219808 39029813



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