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ACUS11 KWNS 041958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041957
OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-042200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Oct 04 2018

Areas affected...Far southeast New Mexico...Portions of West
Texas...Far southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041957Z - 042200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of isolated severe hail and
strong/severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon. With both
limited deep-layer shear and storm coverage expected, a WW is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures south of a stalled cold front across West
Texas have risen to the low 90s near/northwest of Midland, TX.
Visible satellite imagery shows an increase in vertically-developed
cumulus along the TX/NM border. Modifying the 12Z MAF sounding
suggests that convective inhibition has nearly been removed. With
continued surface heating and convergence along the front,
development of a few storms is possible within the next few hours.
With effective deep-layer shear values of 25-30 kts, MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km, isolated
severe hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Strong
surface heating has also contributed to steep low-level lapse rates
which should yield some potential for strong/severe wind gusts as
well. Farther to the northwest, mid-level cloud cover has moderated
surface heating to a degree, but storm development is still possible
later in the afternoon. Overall, the spatial extent of the severe
threat is expected to remain limited. Furthermore, marginal shear
profiles suggest a multicellular storm mode which will likely yield
storm interactions that limit the severe hail threat. A WW is not
currently anticipated.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33000344 33130322 33550255 34080172 34460115 34800065
34930028 35159974 34879925 34599931 34309946 33810001
32830124 32070255 31930312 32270347 33000344



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