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ACUS11 KWNS 031932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031931
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-032100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Oct 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the upper Midwest

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 031931Z - 032100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually expand/intensify across northern/central Wisconsin late this afternoon into this evening. A
few tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail will be
possible. Tornado Watch issuance is expected before 4pm CDT.

DISCUSSION...A somewhat uncertain mesoscale/convective evolution is
anticipated this afternoon/evening, given the influence of multiple
corridors of forcing for ascent and the predominance of cloud cover
from eastern Minnesota to the Michigan Upper Peninsula. Recent 18Z
soundings from GRB/MPX show moderate inhibition for surface-based
parcels, resulting from limited heating due to the aforementioned
cloud cover. However, given the approach of a more substantive
shortwave trough from the Dakotas into Minnesota this afternoon, as
well as northward advection of a warm/moist low-level air mass,
inhibition is expected to decrease sufficiently for surface-based
development around 4-6pm CDT.

The most likely area for such development seemingly exists across
northern Wisconsin into the Michigan UP. Elevated convection
currently observed near/east of the Minneapolis area may begin to
encounter adequate boundary-layer conditions (characterized by
surface temperatures reaching near 70) to become surface based by
late afternoon. Very strong low-level shear and MLCAPE upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg may yield a cluster of embedded supercells and
localized bowing segments, with an attendant threat of a few
tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated large hail. Greater
uncertainty regarding timing of severe convection exists farther
south over central Wisconsin. Still, the eventual approach of the
cold front should yield at least isolated severe storms by mid
evening, and these storms may also produce a couple of tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail, as cells advance eastward towards
Lake Michigan.

This gradual increase in the overall severe threat over the region
will necessitate a Tornado Watch before 4pm CDT.

..Picca/Guyer.. 10/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 44798747 44228794 44168993 44139168 44279274 44739280
45409258 46239187 46648925 46418748 45828728 44798747



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