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ACUS11 KWNS 141947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141946
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-142045-
Mesoscale Discussion 0344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019
Areas affected...Northern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 141946Z - 142045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A warm front has lifted into northern Ohio and northern
Pennsylvania and the boundary layer has begun to destabilize within
the discussion area. Storms to the south and west are expected to
move into the region beginning in an hour or two. Strong wind fields
and deep-layer shear will support organized convection capable of
all severe hazards. The overall hail and tornado threat will be
conditional on storm mode. A tornado watch will be likely within the
next hour.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a warm front from
west-central Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania lifting northward with
time. As the front has lifted, boundary layer heating and moistening
has occurred. Temperatures have risen to the low to mid 60s with
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s. With a couple hours left of
heating, MLCAPE values are forecast to reach between 500-1000 J/kg.
While instability may end up being less than areas to the southwest,
cloud cover for much of the day should keep boundary layer moisture
from mixing out as much as to the southwest. Ongoing storms from
eastern Kentucky to western/central Ohio are expected to progress
north and east. They will move into an environment with around 50
kts of effective deep-layer shear that will improve to around 70 kts
as the mid-level wave continues to approach. Given the expected
storm organization and increasing low-level shear this evening, all
severe hazards will be possible. The main uncertainty in this
scenario will be the storm mode as many CAMs show ongoing storms
congealing into a linear MCS with time. Should that occur, the hail
and tornado threat will be tempered somewhat. A tornado watch is
likely in the next hour or so.
..Wendt/Grams.. 04/14/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41107931 40857924 39847979 39978128 40298207 40418235
40688319 41028333 41328318 41638271 41898214 42078094
42058038 41787981 41107931
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