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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1515

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, October 02, 2018 20:50:15
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 022050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022049
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-022245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1515
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018

    Areas affected...Ohio...Southwest Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...

    Valid 022049Z - 022245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across WW 393 through
    late this afternoon. Wind damage and isolated large hail will be the
    primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front draped east-northeastward across west-central, north-central and northeast
    Ohio. Surface winds ahead of the front are veered to the
    west-southwest with surface dewpoints generally from 65 to 70 F. In
    response to temperatures now in the 80s F and the moist airmass,
    moderate instability is analyzed across most of Ohio. In addition,
    the Wilmington, OH WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear near 45 kt. This
    combination of instability and shear should support a continued
    severe threat this afternoon. Due to the veered low-level winds, the
    storm mode should remain mostly multicellular and have an isolated
    wind damage threat. In the case that a storm can obtain supercell
    structure, then large hail would also be possible.

    ..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...

    LAT...LON 41118312 40778395 40088423 39508416 38998338 38788213
    39368060 39767925 40207929 40468012 41188061 41978095
    41118312



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