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ACUS11 KWNS 022006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022005
NYZ000-022200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018

Areas affected...Western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 022005Z - 022200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few rotating storms have been recently noted in western
NY on KBUF radar. A WW may be needed if these trends continue.

DISCUSSION...Storms near a diffuse surface boundary along the NY/PA
border have shown an increase in low/mid-level rotation over the
course of the last hour on KBUF radar imagery. Given the favorable
deep layer shear of 45-50 kts and KBUF VAD showing near 200 m2/s2
0-3 km SRH, conditions are favorable for possible tornado
development with any of the stronger storms that can develop. The
main source of uncertainty is how much instability is present. A
general area of broken cirrus clouds over portions of central NY has
allowed temperatures to rise to the low 70s in a few locations --
potentially yielding 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. These areas will continue
to be monitored for possible tornado watch issuance should
conditions for rotating storms continue to increase.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42867869 42957820 42917687 42607666 42327684 42087741
42167827 42167926 42437954 42857903 42867869



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