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ACUS11 KWNS 242025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242024
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-242300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Mon Sep 24 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...Northeast Colorado...and Far
Western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242024Z - 242300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have begun to form across portions of the High
Plains in southeast Wyoming, northeast Colorado, and far western
Nebraska in the vicinity of surface low and along the Front Range.
Hail and strong winds gusts are possible as these storms develop and
move east.

DISCUSSION...A broad upper-level trough is over the Northern Rockies
and northern High Plains and embedded shortwave troughs are helping
spread ascent over portions of this region including over the MD
area. A surface low and subsequent surface front are helping to
initiate storms over far southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.
However, updrafts are struggling to sustain themselves due to
limited instability aloft and dry air entrainment. As heights
continue to lower over the area and insolation further destabilizes
the boundary layer, storms are likely to develop and mature over the
next 2-4 hours. MLCAPE will likely only reach 250-750 J/kg and
low-level flow should remain relatively weak (5-10 knots), but
effective bulk shear of 40-60 knots should support a few rotating
updrafts.

Relatively large surface dewpoint depressions (20-40 F) and very
strong mid/upper-level winds could result in strong wind gusts,
especially from collapsing storms. Hail is also possible with a low
freezing level and strong shear. Overall, the evolution should be
rather nebulous as updrafts may struggle to sustain themselves, but
collapsing storms should help trigger new updrafts. If a storm can
establish itself, supercellular development is possible.

..Nauslar/Mosier.. 09/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 43070321 42580284 42120276 41330277 40790272 40300283
40010291 39690315 39660420 39730466 39670483 40210485
40840491 41560502 42060512 42570522 42960527 43140511
43200450 43210366 43070321



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