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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1486

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, September 20, 2018 22:49:14
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 202249
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202248
    IAZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-202345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1486
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0548 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Kansas to northern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

    Valid 202248Z - 202345Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Semi-focused areas of damaging wind threat will continue
    over the next 2-3 hours, but this threat should slowly diminish
    through late evening.

    DISCUSSION...A broken band of strong/severe thunderstorms continues
    to progress eastward from parts of north-central Kansas to northern
    Iowa this evening. The most vigorous storms appear to be focused in
    two zones: 1) from west-central to northern Iowa and 2) across
    northern Kansas. Across the first area, the greatest damaging wind
    potential should continue lifting northward into Minnesota. To the
    south of this potential, despite somewhat veered surface flow ahead
    of ongoing storms (favoring cells becoming slightly displaced behind
    outflow), steep low/mid-level lapse rates are still supporting
    sufficient downdraft momentum for a damaging wind threat (e.g., 58
    kt gust at Tekamah NE at 2210 UTC/510 CDT). This threat will lift
    northeast across the remainder of northern Iowa this evening.

    Farther south, a secondary area of somewhat focused large-scale
    ascent (near the base of the broader mid-level trough) is
    maintaining convective vigor across northern Kansas, despite an
    increase in drier air aloft (relative to points north). While storms
    here should also struggle to deepen along/ahead of outflow, enough
    downdraft momentum may still exist in the strongest cores for
    localized damaging wind potential through mid evening.

    ..Picca.. 09/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 42159316 40169650 39289814 39239909 39469917 40359822
    42179601 43419481 43489300 43469198 43249167 42819185
    42159316



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