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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1484

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, September 20, 2018 20:17:14
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202016
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-202145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1484
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0316 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of southern Michigan...northern
    Indiana...northern Illinois...and northwestern Ohio.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 202016Z - 202145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms have developed in the last few hours that
    will pose the threat for isolated severe wind gusts and
    marginally-severe hail, but a Watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed along a warm
    front, with the storms most concentrated over the eastern portion of
    the area. Strong heating and near-surface dewpoints in the mid-60s
    to near 70 is supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg from east to west
    over the area. The storms are near the southern fringe of stronger
    mid-level flow, and have therefore evolved within enough deep-layer
    shear to support a mixed mode of multicell/supercell structures. A
    few damaging wind gusts are possible with these storms given the
    steep low-level lapse rates, but the severe wind threat should be
    limited by rather weak low-level wind fields, especially over the
    eastern portion of the area. Although some transient rotation may
    support development of marginally-severe hail, very warm mid-level
    temperatures should keep the severe hail threat to a minimum. The
    above limiting factors should prevent the need for a Watch in this
    area in the next few hours.

    ..Coniglio/Hart.. 09/20/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN...

    LAT...LON 41998420 41458386 41198446 41198615 41338797 41478932
    41408998 41829032 42318991 42428903 42458746 42508572
    42478467 41998420



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