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ACUS11 KWNS 030017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030017
TXZ000-030145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...portions of western TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64...

Valid 030017Z - 030145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will continue across
portions of western north Texas into the Rio Grande region this
evening. Uncertainty exists with regards to additional storm
development and Severe Thunderstorm Watch 64 continues across the
region.

DISCUSSION...Some uncertainty continues with regards to additional
convective development into the nighttime hours across parts of
western TX. A line of storms that developed early ahead of the
dryline will continue to lift east/northeast across north TX while
isolated cells persist further south toward the Big Bend vicinity.
Hi-res HRRR guidance continues to insist additional development will
occur along the retreating dryline. Additionally, guidance continues
to indicate that storms developing across the Rio Grande in Mexico
will lift northeast overnight into parts of west TX. A lack of more
robust storm development along the Sierra del Burro and some modest
growth of cumulus along the dryline call this scenario into
question. Given uncertainty, and an environment that will continue
to support severe storms should they develop, Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 64 continues.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 33309833 29460025 29410079 29460196 29480283 33360105
33309833



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ACUS11 KWNS 131839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131838
LAZ000-TXZ000-132015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Texas into central Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 53...

Valid 131838Z - 132015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 53 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe weather potential, including the risk for
tornadoes, is expected to continue to gradually increase through 3-4
PM CDT. One or two strong tornadoes is possible.

DISCUSSION...Peak measured (3-second mean wind) winds along the
eastward advancing gust front have generally been on the order of
40-45 kts, generally focused along the warm frontal zone. It
appears that the apex of the bowing reflectivity structure and
leading edge of outflow will reach the Sabine Valley around 20Z.

Downstream, discrete supercell development continues immediately
ahead of the gust front, near/just north of the warm front, with
additional discrete storms also beginning to initiate in the warm
sector, inland of the coast, near/north of Houston into southwestern
Louisiana. 50+ kt south-southwesterly deep layer mean flow will
support northward motion of developing warm sector cells across a
rapidly destabilizing boundary layer air mass, roughly along a zone
Lufkin TX eastward into the Alexandria LA vicinity (near the current
position of the warm front), during the next few hours. This is
where near surface hodographs appear largest and the environment
most supportive of tornadic potential through 20-21Z.

..Kerr.. 04/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 31929478 32059390 32229228 31619172 31149179 30649279
30619382 31009501 31929478



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