1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1472

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, September 18, 2018 00:50:32
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1537231834-46358-10955
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 180050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180049
    NEZ000-SDZ000-180245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1472
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0749 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of northern Nebraska...far southern South
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 180049Z - 180245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few storms capable of severe hail are possible this
    evening. An increase in storm coverage over the next hour or two is
    possible. Overall coverage is expected to remain isolated and thus a
    WW is not anticipated. Convective trends will continue to be
    monitored, however.

    DISCUSSION...Ascent associated with a mid-level impulse now over
    southeastern Wyoming has led to storm development in Cherry County,
    NE, near a cold front draped across northern Nebraska. The 00Z LBF
    sounding exhibited a long hodograph with around 40 kts of effective
    bulk shear, contributed mostly by speed variations above 600 mb.
    With relatively cold temperatures aloft, very steep mid-level lapse
    rates -- around 9 C/km observed at LBF -- will support a threat for
    severe hail. Recent CAM guidance suggests that an increase in storm
    coverage is possible over the next couple of hours due to a
    combination of the aforementioned upstream ascent and an increase in
    the low-level jet this evening. Given some uncertainty with regard
    to storm coverage, a WW is not currently anticipated. However,
    convective trends will be monitored.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 09/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42590203 42960146 43349944 43119740 42699688 42159689
    41799764 41579857 41500059 41770153 41980203 42290224
    42590203



    ------------=_1537231834-46358-10955
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1537231834-46358-10955--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)