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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1471

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, September 17, 2018 23:10:03
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 172309
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172309
    VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-180115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1471
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0609 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Virginia

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 382...

    Valid 172309Z - 180115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 382 continues.

    SUMMARY...A few rotating storms may still occur, but potential for
    tornadoes should wane as surface winds and instability become less
    favorable with time. A new WW is not anticipated at this time.

    DISCUSSION...After several tornadoes were reported in parts of
    eastern Virginia during the afternoon, much of the activity has
    diminished in intensity, per radar imagery, within Tornado Watch
    382. A cluster of storms is ongoing in east-central Virgina where
    instability still remains -- likely 1000-1500 MLCAPE J/kg. KLWX and
    KAKQ VAD profiles are currently showing 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH
    when accounting for observed storm motion. While low level-wind
    fields may continue to be favorable for low-level rotation for a few
    hours, the overall potential for circulations to reach the surface
    should diminish with time as near-surface stability increases and
    surface winds veer as the post-tropical system shifts
    east/northeastward. The remaining threat will likely be a locally strong/damaging wind gust or two. A new WW is not anticipated at
    this time.

    ..Wendt.. 09/17/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

    LAT...LON 37187776 37187780 37317840 37317844 37317844 37347845
    37347847 38007830 38937766 39407637 39407636 39407636
    39387630 39387630 39277619 39007615 38027604 37907604
    37457666 37437670 37247737 37227743 37227744 37187775
    37187776 37187776



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