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ACUS11 KWNS 022209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022208
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-022345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0318
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0508 PM CDT Wed May 02 2018

Areas affected...far southeast NE and northeast KS into portions of
southern IA and northern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 022208Z - 022345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase through the
evening hours. Large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few
tornadoes will be possible. A watch will likely be needed soon
across the MCD area.

DISCUSSION...Convection was beginning to develop along the
baroclinic zone in southwest IA early this evening. Dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates has
resulted in a strongly unstable airmass with SBCAPE greater than
2000 J/kg noted in latest mesoanalysis. These initial storms likely
will lift to the north of the front and pose a hail threat as they
become increasingly elevated on the cool side of the boundary.
However any cell that can remain discrete along the boundary will be
in a low level kinematic environment supportive of low level
rotation and a tornado can not be ruled out.

Later this evening, the bowing line segment lifting east/northeast
across KS will track into the MCD area and strong, damaging winds
will become the main threat. However, low level flow will remain
adequate such that embedded mesovortex circulations will continue to
pose a tornado threat.

..Leitman/Edwards.. 05/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 41519390 41249507 40859580 40329655 40019670 39769665
39549641 39279578 39209527 39229474 39539391 39949313
40419247 40869215 41329212 41529251 41549357 41519390



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