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ACUS11 KWNS 161509
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161509
NCZ000-SCZ000-161715-
Mesoscale Discussion 1464
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Sun Sep 16 2018
Areas affected...Eastern South Carolina/North Carolina border area
Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...
Valid 161509Z - 161715Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.
SUMMARY...Increasing risk for tornadoes possible through 1-4 PM EDT,
with convection, including thunderstorm activity, now forming near
the eastern North and South Carolina border area.
DISCUSSION...Breaks in overcast appear to be allowing for the
development of weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE (increasing in
excess of 1000 J/kg) within a narrow corridor straddling the eastern
North and South Carolina border. This is within inflow of very
moist air off the Atlantic, in the presence of residual moderately
strong southerly low-level flow (on the order of 40 kt around 850
mb) to the east of the circulation center of Florence. Based on
recent VWP data from Wilmington NC, low-level hodographs remain
sizable and clockwise curved, and supportive of the development of
sustained low-level mesocyclones in stronger convective development.
It appears possible that this could be accompanied by increasing
potential for tornadoes through the 17-20Z time frame.
..Kerr.. 09/16/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CAE...
LAT...LON 35197973 34997889 34457814 33487828 32947870 33437934
34157971 34708017 35197973
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