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ACUS11 KWNS 160359
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160359
NCZ000-160630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1461
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018

Areas affected...Southeast North Carolina

Concerning...Tornado Watch 378...

Valid 160359Z - 160630Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 378 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado potential continues within Tornado Watch 378
through the overnight, especially for southeast North Carolina
locations within ~50 miles of the coast including the general
vicinity of Wilmington.

DISCUSSION...Within the northeast quadrant of Florence, moist
low-level confluence persists in conjunction with very strong
low-level shear and inland-pivoting convective bands. Even when
accounting for observed storm motions (which somewhat reduces
Bunkers RM-derived estimates of SRH), latest WSR-88D VWP data from
Wilmington still suggests 200+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH across the coastal
plain, which is more than adequate for continued semi-persistent/inland-spreading supercells and a tornado risk,
especially within areas roughly 50 miles of the coast. While higher
SRH exists inland (50+ miles) away from the immediate coast,
less-favorable thermodynamic characteristics will tend to curb the
overall tornado likelihood with north/northwestward extent.

While some outer-band mergers/consolidation has occurred over the
past hour or two, there has been a notable recent increase in
convective intensity (including increased lightning, 5km/7km CAPPI,
and MRMS low-level rotation tracks) with a convective band that
extends from near Wilmington NC southward to 100-125 miles off shore
as of 1145pm EDT. It seems plausible that this band of increasingly
stout convection could provide a semi-focused temporal/spatial
corridor of multiple-supercell-related tornado potential during the early/middle part of the overnight as it pivots north-northwest
toward the southeast North Carolina coast in the general vicinity of
the Wilmington metro area (and southward to around Southport),
perhaps similar to an earlier wave of possible tornado-producing
supercells that occurred generally between 8-11 pm EDT.

..Guyer.. 09/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 33627830 34567925 35037880 34857779 33737735 32327767
33627830



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