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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1441

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, September 09, 2018 22:34:20
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 092234
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092233
    WVZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-NCZ000-100100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1441
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0533 PM CDT Sun Sep 09 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Kentucky/Tennessee...western Virginia...and
    southern West Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 092233Z - 100100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms continue to develop and move northeast ahead of a
    cold front in a moist/unstable environment. Strong wind gusts are
    the main threat.

    DISCUSSION...Several new storms/storm clusters have developed over
    the past hour and have intensified over the Appalachians stretching
    from southern West Virginia southward through eastern Tennessee.
    These storms have developed south/east of cloud cover associated
    with the approaching cold front. There is sufficient buoyancy to
    support strong storms (MLCAPE 500-1200 J/kg), but shear remains
    marginal especially at low levels (effective bulk shear of 25-35
    knots). These storms should continue into the evening, but the
    overall storm environment will deteriorate after sunset. Given the
    general amorphic and transient nature of the updrafts, strong wind
    gusts are possible as updrafts collapse or if any of the storms can
    organize upscale into a quasi-coherent cluster. A watch issuance is
    unlikely given the limited severe threat posed.

    ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 09/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...

    LAT...LON 36228500 36638482 37328397 37768303 38298207 38298169
    38248125 37678105 37278135 36748170 36188219 35798321
    35668395 35688464 35948518 36228500



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