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ACUS11 KWNS 081857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081856
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat Sep 08 2018

Areas affected...Far Southern Indiana...Kentucky...Southwestern West
Virginia and Far Western Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 081856Z - 082130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A potential for strong wind gusts and a brief tornado will
exist across parts of the lower Ohio Valley and central Appalachian
Mountains this afternoon. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely
due to the marginal nature of the threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows the remnants of Gordon
moving across the lower Ohio Valley. The center of the system is
located to the northwest of Evansville, IN. Cellular convection has
developed eastward across parts of central and eastern Kentucky just
to the south of a warm front positioned near Lexington extending
eastward along the I-64 corridor. Surface dewpoints along and south
of the front are in the lower 70s F where the RAP is analyzing
moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg). In addition, the
Louisville, KY WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 Km shear of 45-50 Kt and 0-3 Km
SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. While VWPs south of the front show
substantially weaker low-level shear, the shear right near the warm
front should be strong enough for a brief tornado. A few strong wind
gusts will also be possible. The best chance for a tornado will be
with discrete cells that interact with the warm front across
north-central Kentucky late this afternoon and early this evening.

..Broyles/Grams.. 09/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...PAH...

LAT...LON 38348456 38268305 38138203 37728169 37338178 37128224
37118332 37128398 37138563 37228657 37708692 38238630
38348456



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