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ACUS11 KWNS 061721
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061720
NYZ000-PAZ000-061945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Thu Sep 06 2018

Areas affected...Central and eastern Pennsylvania...Far southeast
New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 061720Z - 061945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are likely the main threat
with the stronger storms. A WW issuance is not anticipated at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Convection has recently grown upscale into an organized
linear segment roughly from Jefferson to Westmoreland Counties PA,
with a forward eastward propagation noted. In addition, more
cellular convection has recently initiated ahead of the line, as
well as to the north of the line across northern
Pennsylvania/southeast New York. Current thinking is that the
convective line will merge with other, more slowly moving discrete
cells to the east, with continued upscale growth likely during the
next several hours.

With deep-layer ascent associated with a glancing shortwave trough
and cold front remaining to the north, convection is expected to
remain more isolated in central Pennsylvania, with a greater
concentration of storms possible in northern/northeastern
Pennsylvania over the next several hours. The ambient environment is
relatively moist in the lowest 100 mb, with around 7+ C/km sfc-3km
lapse rates prevalent, yielding up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE across the
discussion area. Tropospheric flow is mainly unidirectional, with
around 25-30 knots of bulk effective speed shear noted. As such,
mainly multicell and linear storm clusters are expected to be the
dominant modes of convection. As mid-level lapse rates are rather
modest (i.e 5.5-6.0 C/km), with poor speed/directional low-level
shear (denoted by less than 50 m2/s2 0-3km SRH in RAP point forecast soundings), isolated damaging wind gusts originating from wet
downbursts are expected to be the primary threat with the stronger
storms, particularly in areas where greatest upscale growth and cold
pool development occur.

Given the expected isolated and marginal extent of the severe
threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 40687916 41177834 41937711 42317552 42067483 41737458
41217496 40827541 40467658 40347920 40687916



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