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ACUS11 KWNS 051823
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051823
ALZ000-MSZ000-052100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018

Areas affected...East-central Mississippi...west-central Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051823Z - 052100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A brief tornado or two may occur with one of the stronger
cells embedded within Tropical Depression Gordon rain bands. A WW
issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Insolation within a dry-slot wrapping into the
right-front quadrant of Tropical Depression Gordon has allowed for
low-level temperatures to rise into the upper 70s/80s this
afternoon, with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE (100 J/kg below 3-km) realized
owing to deep moisture prevalent throughout the discussion area.
Though Gordon is currently weakening, 25 knots of sfc-1km speed
shear, with modest veering below 850 mb has resulted in up to 200
m2/s2 SRH in both the 1- and 3-km layers (as noted in GWX
VAD/Profiler Data within the past hour). GWX radar has also
suggested that modest storm organization and intensification has
recently taken place within the discussion area, particularly in
Clay/Monroe Counties in Mississippi.

The more organized storms may produce sustained low-level rotation
and perhaps a brief tornado where more favorable low-level shear is
juxtaposed with the strongest surface heating and instability. Given
the marginal and isolated extent of the tornado threat, a WW
issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32668916 32918934 33278952 33558959 33668916 33618873
33258807 32818760 32448753 32158790 32258858 32418902
32668916



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