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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0306

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 01, 2018 20:17:00
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    ACUS11 KWNS 012016
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012016
    IAZ000-NEZ000-012145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0306
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0316 PM CDT Tue May 01 2018

    Areas affected...parts of western and central Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 012016Z - 012145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Convection initiating near the Missouri Valley may expand
    eastward with time. WW may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a storm developing near the
    Nebraska/Iowa border -- in the vicinity of Monona Co. IA -- in the
    immediate vicinity of the surface front. Cloud cover which has
    prevailed across this region is resulting in a somewhat cooler/less
    unstable airmass across IA as compared to farther southwestward into
    southeast Nebraska and Kansas, and as such, prospects for more
    widespread convection near the front remain in question. Some CAM
    runs do develop convection both near and north of the front over the
    next several hours -- particularly to the cool side of the boundary
    where hail risk would prevail. However, any sustained/surface-based
    storms initiating near the front would also pose some risk for large
    hail, and possibly a tornado.

    With potential for additional development along the IA portion of
    the front still uncertain, we will continue to monitor trends in
    radar and visible satellite -- with an eye toward potential ww
    issuance if more widespread development appears to become likely.

    ..Goss/Grams.. 05/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41799608 42509620 43149409 43289256 42529212 41299550
    41799608



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, April 12, 2019 08:21:13
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 120821
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120820
    MSZ000-LAZ000-120915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0306
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0320 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

    Areas affected...East-central Louisiana into southwest/central
    Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 120820Z - 120915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A low-end threat for large hail and perhaps a damaging
    wind gust or two is possible with ongoing convection over central
    Louisiana. A WW issuance is not anticipated for this activity.

    DISCUSSION...A general uptick in convection has occurred recently in
    central Louisiana, with mostly anafrontal convection being modestly
    influenced by a mid-level vortmax over the ArkLaTex. These storms
    are just behind the synoptic cold front that stretches from near JAN
    to near HEZ and LCH. The track of these storms should keep them
    elevated just behind the front, and is it possible that storms
    weaken over the next couple hours as they migrate away from the
    slightly better instability located over south-central Louisiana.
    Nevertheless, mid-level rotation and cores extending above the
    freezing level (as indicated on radar) suggest that an isolated
    marginally severe hail may not be completely ruled out. Locally
    damaging wind gusts may also occur beneath the heavier cores.

    Given the marginal (and probably short-lived) nature of the threat,
    a WW issuance is not anticipated at this time.

    ..Cook.. 04/12/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31919184 32239129 32469050 32358993 31878974 31308988
    31079034 30859116 30789192 31019226 31289228 31919184



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