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ACUS11 KWNS 031821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031820
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-032045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CDT Mon Sep 03 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern IA...northern IL...and
far southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031820Z - 032045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal strong/gusty wind threat should continue
through the rest of the afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface analysis shows a convectively reinforced
boundary extending from far southern WI into northern IL and
central/eastern IA. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a
low-amplitude shortwave trough moving over IA this afternoon, and
scattered thunderstorms have already formed across northern IL ahead
of this feature. Relatively strong diurnal heating has occurred to
the south of the boundary/front, with temperatures in the mid 80s to
lower 90s away from ongoing convection. The low-level airmass is
also very moist per 12Z soundings from KDVN and KILX and recent
surface observations. Even though mid-level lapse rates remain poor,
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will likely exist through peak heating
along and south of the boundary. VWPs from the KLOT and KDVN radars
show modestly strengthening southwesterly flow through mid levels,
which is resulting in around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear across
the warm sector. This shear coupled with steepening low-level lapse
rates should be enough to support occasional multicells capable of
producing mainly isolated strong wind gusts up to 50-60 mph as they
move east-northeastward. With somewhat stronger mid-level winds
expected to remain just to the north of the boundary through the
rest of the afternoon, the overall severe threat will likely remain
too isolated/marginal to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Guyer.. 09/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 41579255 41879225 42539058 42838772 42528774 42228775
41938762 41618754 41198759 40759043 40879161 41139244
41579255



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