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ACUS11 KWNS 030029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030028
AZZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1416
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Areas affected...South-central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 030028Z - 030200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal hail and wind damage threat will be possible
over the next hour or two across south-central Arizona. Weather
watch issuance is not expected this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a cluster of strong
thunderstorms across south-central Arizona where some of the cells
could be near severe levels. The RAP has a pocket of moderate
instability across southeast Arizona where MLCAPE is in the 1000 to
2000 J/kg range. In addition, RAP forecast soundings to the
southeast of Phoenix have 0-6 km near 30 kt. This combined with very
steep low-level lapse rates may support an isolated severe threat
for a couple more hours this evening. A few strong wind gusts and
hail will be possible. However, the threats are expected to remain
marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 09/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31531026 31701110 32071173 32691204 33521188 33911173
34011153 34031139 33961107 33631077 32361020 31851004
31531026



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