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ACUS11 KWNS 030028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030027
MIZ000-030130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Sun Sep 02 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 030027Z - 030130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts or perhaps even a brief tornado
could occur this evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of stronger cells is pushing across western
Lower Michigan this evening, likely aided by a weak MCV transiting
the region. Although deep-layer shear is not particularly
impressive, somewhat backed surface flow and 850mb winds around 30
kt from the southwest are yielding sufficient helicity for embedded,
transient low-level rotation within this cluster. Indeed, recent
KAPX VWP data show 0-1km helicity around 150 m2/s2. Combined with
surface dew points into the lower 70s, this kinematic environment
may favor isolated damaging gusts or even a brief tornado for the
next hour or two.

..Picca/Thompson.. 09/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

LAT...LON 43898633 44718523 44878411 44788345 44358341 43518395
43338522 43418628 43578643 43898633



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