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ACUS11 KWNS 012334
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012334
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-020030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0634 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

Areas affected...Much of Iowa and far northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 012334Z - 020030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered convection continues to increase within a weak warm-advection regime across the discussion area. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible with the ongoing activity.
Specific evolution of convection - and resultant need for a WW
issuance - is a bit unclear at this time, however.

DISCUSSION...Subtle lift associated with an approaching mid-level
disturbance has resulted in rapid, scattered development of
thunderstorms near central Iowa and the Des Moines Metro area over
the past hour or so. These storms are in a moderately sheared
environment (0-6km shear ~35-45 kt) and strongly unstable (4000-5000
J/kg MUCAPE environment, with steep mid-level lapse rates favoring
an emerging large hail and damaging wind threat with this activity.
Low-level flow is relatively weak however, which may limit any
threat of updraft rotation to storms that can interact favorably
with a weak east-west synoptic boundary located across northern
portions of the discussion area.

Eventual evolution of the convective cluster now over central Iowa
is a bit unclear and may ultimately depend on a couple of factors:
1) eastward progression of an upstream MCS now over north-central
Kansas and 2) extent of upscale growth of ongoing convection into
clusters and forward-propagating linear segments. Any increase in
coverage of storms beyond that currently observed will likely
necessitate a WW issuance for portions of the area. Convective
trends will continue to be monitored.

..Cook.. 09/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 42109627 42799387 43119210 43109075 42729028 42298980
41838968 41179004 40859061 40829071 40399286 40199420
40259520 40949628 41799653 42109627



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