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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1405

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, September 01, 2018 22:57:46
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    ACUS11 KWNS 012257
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012257
    MIZ000-020000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1405
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0557 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018

    Areas affected...Southern Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 012257Z - 020000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Convection across the region will exhibit occasional
    supercellular characteristics across the discussion area, posing an
    isolated threat of hail, wind gusts, or a brief tornado. A WW is
    not anticipated for this activity.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has matured recently along an east-to-west
    outflow draped from near GRR to near DTW and also ahead of a
    mid-level disturbance entering western Lower Michigan. These storms
    are in an environment characterized by weak to moderate instability
    (1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE) and favorable deep shear (~35-45 kt) for
    updraft rotation. Cells have also interacted with a remnant outflow
    boundary from an earlier MCS that has exited the region, and
    localized vorticity near this boundary has fostered updraft rotation
    in a few of the cells. Any severe threat with this activity should
    remain fairly isolated, although hail, damaging wind gusts, and
    perhaps a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out. This threat
    should persist for another 2-3 hours, with nocturnal cooling and
    low-level stabilization limiting the threat thereafter.

    ..Cook.. 09/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 43478612 43538526 43128371 42658300 42158315 41918407
    41978593 42248642 43028640 43478612



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