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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1396

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, August 31, 2018 06:11:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 310611
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 310610
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-310845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1396
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0110 AM CDT Fri Aug 31 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast NE...Northeast KS...Northwest
    MO...Western/Central IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 310610Z - 310845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe hail is possible with elevated convection
    overnight.

    DISCUSSION...ACCAS field over southeast NE/northeast KS has recently
    blossomed into deep convection. Steep midlevel lapse rates noted on
    area 00Z soundings are supporting moderate elevated instability
    across the region, with MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg noted per recent
    mesoanalyses. Most CAM guidance suggests elevated convection will
    increase in coverage across western/central IA later tonight (around
    08-09Z). While the timing is somewhat uncertain, an increase in
    convection with time appears plausible as a relatively strong
    low-level jet remains focused into the area and the plume of steep
    midlevel lapse rates is maintained from the west.

    Midlevel flow is sufficient for effective shear of 30-40 kt for
    convection rooted around 800 mb, which will support at least
    transient updraft organization with a potential for severe hail.
    Most CAM guidance suggests a dominant cluster mode, which would be
    somewhat unfavorable for a more organized hail threat, and watch
    issuance is currently considered unlikely. However, if a trend
    toward more long-lived discrete modes is observed overnight, then
    the watch potential will be reconsidered.

    ..Dean/Edwards.. 08/31/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 39299587 40219646 42129597 43469502 43419401 43099341
    42379306 41409315 40489358 39589416 39139478 39079532
    39299587



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