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ACUS11 KWNS 292216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292216
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-292345-
Mesoscale Discussion 1392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018
Areas affected...Maine...Northern Vermont and New Hampshire and far
northeast New York
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...
Valid 292216Z - 292345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360
continues.
SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat continues across severe
thunderstorm watch 360. The greatest threat for severe storms will
be in Maine.
DISCUSSION...Storms have have formed ahead of a cold front in Maine,
Vermont and New Hampshire. The strongest storms have been in Maine
thus far where mid-level temperatures are slightly cooler and
effective shear is stronger. Further south, a warmer nose between
700 and 500 mb has limited mid-level lapse rates to around 5 to 5.5
C/km. This is likely why storms in this area have struggled more
than the storms further north. Expect the corridor of greatest risk
to remain in Maine due to the aforementioned reasons, but cannot
rule out occasional stronger storms further south along the line.
In addition, the warm front has now lifted north of the deeper
convection, and boundary layer flow has veered somewhat. Therefore,
while an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given around 30 knots
of flow around 1 km, the overall tornado threat has lowered.
..Bentley.. 08/29/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 43657413 44447292 45137140 45927031 46546891 46836816
46536768 45956773 45336796 44796838 43707105 43207249
43177403 43657413
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