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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1389

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, August 29, 2018 18:57:02
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 291856
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291856
    MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-292100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1389
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0156 PM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018

    Areas affected...Northern NH...Northern/Central ME

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 291856Z - 292100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
    afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are possible within the stronger
    storms. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in
    north-central/northeast ME.

    DISCUSSION...Based on satellite imagery, cumulus development has
    remained rather flat over the area during the past hour or so. Some
    slightly better vertical development is now apparent from far
    northeast VT across northern NH and into northwest ME, indicative of
    stronger forcing for ascent now edging into the region. At the same
    time, the airmass continues to destabilize amidst diurnal heating
    and modest moisture advection with recent mesoanalysis indicating
    MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg for much of the region. Warm front currently
    extending across central ME is currently limiting destabilization
    across eastern portions of state. However, this boundary is lifting northeastward and is expected to be through much of the state by
    21Z.

    Strengthening mid-level flow will help organize thunderstorms
    developing within this unstable environment. As such, the potential
    exists for damaging wind gusts, particularly within the more
    persistent and organized cells. Interaction with the boundary may
    also support the risk for an isolated tornado across
    north-central/northeastern ME.

    ..Mosier/Dial.. 08/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

    LAT...LON 45127137 45537079 47256940 46926831 45706846 44746948
    43887193 44607174 45127137



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