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ACUS11 KWNS 290005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290005
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-290100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018

Areas affected...Northern Illinois...far southern Wisconsin and far
northwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 290005Z - 290100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed
downstream of severe thunderstorm watch 357. The primary threat will
be damaging winds from a line of storms moving toward the area.

DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing segment in east central Iowa
has recently produced winds of 83 mph in Iowa City, Iowa. This bow
will move through Davenport in the next 30 minutes and then continue
east across northern Illinois. This area had been stabilized by
earlier convection, but this area has recovered somewhat over the
past few hours. Therefore, there is likely enough instability to
support a continued wind damage threat from this bowing segment,
albeit likely less intense than it has been in eastern Iowa where
the thermodynamic environment is more favorable. South of the apex
of this bow, the organized severe wind threat will likely be less,
but additional storm development in a highly unstable airmass will
support at least some threat of large hail and damaging winds. The
low-level jet is starting to strengthen per regional VWP sites which
will elongate the low-level hodograph and may briefly increase the
tornado threat, especially north of the apex of the bow. However,
the primary threat is expected to remain damaging straight line
winds.

..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 42828936 42868878 42828798 42708759 42438729 41968705
41588708 40968725 40738757 40598807 40538848 40548911
40578979 40779008 41009030 41349053 41919053 42418998
42828936



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