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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1373

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, August 27, 2018 23:17:56
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 272317
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272317
    SDZ000-NEZ000-280045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1373
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0617 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

    Areas affected...South Central South Dakota and North Central
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 272317Z - 280045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered supercells are expected through the
    evening. The primary threat will be large hail. A severe
    thunderstorm watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Two supercells have developed east of Rapid City within
    the last hour. These supercells have produced hail up to golf ball
    size within the past 30 minutes. Expect the ongoing storms to
    continue to move eastward along the instability gradient and persist
    for several more hours. With MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg and deep layer
    shear around 70 knots per UDX VWP, expect this activity to continue
    to pose a large hail threat as it moves east.

    Farther south, additional storm development is possible, but
    activity should remain more isolated due to weak forcing. However,
    any storms which can organize will likely be supercells with a
    threat of large hail and damaging winds given MLCAPE around 2500 to
    3500 J/kg and deep layer shear around 45 to 50 knots per LNX VWP.

    A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed shortly. The best chance
    for a severe thunderstorm watch will be southern South Dakota ahead
    of the ongoing supercells which are expected to persist.

    ..Bentley/Thompson.. 08/27/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44330215 44660163 44740006 44549879 44289786 43819798
    43079854 42189874 41489947 41250045 41490102 42560072
    43860208 44330215



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