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ACUS11 KWNS 302052
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302051
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-302145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Mon Apr 30 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern South Dakota through central Nebraska
and into far northwestern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 302051Z - 302145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in convection is expected this
afternoon across the discussion area. Large hail and damaging wind
gusts are the primary threats with this expected activity. A WW
issuance is likely for some portions of the region later this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest objective analysis indicate a cold front
extending from northwestern Minnesota south-southwestward to near
Ainsworth, NE and on into the northeastern Colorado Plains.
East/ahead of this boundary, a moderately unstable airmass has
developed due to surface warming of a low-level airmass
(characterized by 40s and 50s F dewpoints) along with steep low- and
mid-level lapse rates. Some capping has been noted throughout the
day, although an approaching mid-level vorticity maximum over
northeastern Colorado was helping to erode this cap as evidenced by
an increasing cumulus field in portions of southwestern Nebraska as
indicated on GOES-16 visible satellite.

With time, the cap should continue to erode from southwest to
northeast and result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity.
Large hail and damaging downburst winds will be the main threats
with this activity given supportive deep shear profiles for storm
organization, deeply mixed boundary layer thermodynamic profiles,
and 20-35F T/Td spreads. Coverage of storms is expected to be
sufficient enough for a severe thunderstorm watch issuance, and one
may be needed later this afternoon or early evening.

..Cook/Wendt/Grams.. 04/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...

LAT...LON 44099952 44389902 44439849 44359818 44199808 43749812
42739874 41569924 40679953 40119977 39450029 39310076
39350118 39530138 39870145 40290131 40910113 42770027
44099952



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ACUS11 KWNS 090058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090058
ALZ000-MSZ000-090300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

Areas affected...Central and eastern Mississippi into western
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 090058Z - 090300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may pose a risk for marginally severe damaging wind
gusts and hail. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Given the
isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...An uptick in multicellular convection has recently been
observed within the past two hours across central into eastern
portions of Mississippi, within close proximity of a surface low,
where low-level convergence is maximized. 100-150 J/kg 0-3km MLCAPE
is in place across eastern Mississippi into far western Alabama,
fostering an environment supportive of vigorous convection.

Nonetheless, deep-layer and low-level shear are relatively mediocre
across the warm sector, and with a nocturnally cooling/stabilizing
boundary layer, updraft intensity is expected to wane with time. The
more vigorous updrafts may promote an isolated marginally severe
hail threat. A few damaging wind gusts are also possible. A few of
the storms have also exhibited transient supercell characteristics,
with brief periods of mid to low-level rotation noted. Given the
propensity of cells to merge (effectively weakening organized
rotation via cell interactions) along with a stabilizing boundary
layer, any tornado threat that remains will likely be brief in
nature.

As the remaining severe threat is expected to be short lived and
isolated in nature, a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 04/09/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 31968809 31708862 31638915 31919001 32149008 32679007
33818934 34158843 34038783 33428755 32718775 31968809



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