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ACUS11 KWNS 261843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261842
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-262115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1361
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Areas affected...Eastern SD...Far Southeast ND...Far West-Central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 261842Z - 262115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely develop across the region within
the next hour or two. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, are
possible and a Tornado Watch will likely be needed within the next
two hours or so.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a low near PIR in
central SD with a warm front extending northeastward to ABR and then
back east-southeastward into southeast MN. Fine line on recent KABR
radar imagery appears to delineate this warm front, which is now
steadily moving northward. Airmass south of this boundary is very
moist with dewpoints currently in the low 70s. Continued diurnal
heating of this moist airmass will result in eroding convective
inhibition and building instability. Lift provided by the
approaching shortwave trough will help erode any remaining
convective inhibition, leading to eventual thunderstorm initiation.
When this initiation occurs is somewhat uncertain, but the leading
edge of the stronger forcing for ascent (demarcated by the
increasing vertical development with the cloud band across central
SD) continues to progress quickly eastward, suggesting initiation
could happen within the next hour or two.

Once initiation occurs, the overall environment is supportive of
updraft organization and the development of supercells. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will support a moderately to strongly unstable
airmass with MLCAPE above 2500 J/kg and the resulting potential for
large hail. Some very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inches in
diameter) is possible. Low-level flow will also continue to
gradually increase, resulting in a corridor of enhanced low-level
helicity, particularly near the warm front where surface winds are
more southeasterly. As a result, tornadoes are also possible within
the strongest and most persistent storms. Strong to severe wind
gusts are also possible.

Threat for all severe hazards will likely merit the issuance of a
Tornado Watch across portions of eastern SD, southeast ND, and far
west-central MN within the next two hours or so.

..Mosier/Dial.. 08/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45749831 46289760 46369643 45739579 44989585 44069709
43909843 44709908 45749831



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