This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1535295222-1928-5721
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 261453
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261453
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-261700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0953 AM CDT Sun Aug 26 2018

Areas affected...Western/Central IA...Far Northeast NE...Far
Southeast SD...Far Southwest MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261453Z - 261700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across
the region over the next several hours. A watch is not expected in
the short-term but trends are monitored.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage across southwest IA and vicinity
continues to increase as strong warm-air advection persist into the
region, augmented by lift from a low-amplitude shortwave trough
moving northeastward into the central Plains. Steep mid-level lapse
rates exists downstream across IA (as evidenced by regional 12Z
sounding and recent mesoanalysis) and the general expectation is for thunderstorm to continue for at least the next several hours with
some increase in coverage possible. Given the relatively warm
mid-level temperatures, surface-based storms appear unlikely with
updrafts generally expected to remain rooted some where between 850
and 700 mb. Consequently, the primary severe threat is expected to
be hail. Even so, high LFCs atop warm mid-level temperatures promote
high DCAPE values and the potential for some strong negative
buoyancy, resulting in the possibility for damaging wind gusts. A
gust of 40 kt was recently measured at SUX. Uncertainty regarding
severe storm coverage leads to low watch probability over the next
couple of hours but convective trends will be monitored closely.

..Mosier/Dial.. 08/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 40789459 41489607 42609703 43569677 43769517 42159246
40939300 40789459



------------=_1535295222-1928-5721
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1535295222-1928-5721--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)