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ACUS11 KWNS 242008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242007
MNZ000-IAZ000-242200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Fri Aug 24 2018

Areas affected...southern Minnesota into northern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242007Z - 242200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible, with small hail the
primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Heating has lead to the development of around 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE over IA into southern MN, with increasing CU noted on visible
imagery. Currently, temperatures aloft are also reasonably cold
given the upper trough aloft, and there is weak surface convergence
related to the surface low. As such, scattered storms should develop
over the next few hours.

Although unstable, warming aloft behind the eastward-moving trough
will mitigate further destabilization, and the low will continue to
fill. Thus, while the combination of modest instability and
deep-layer shear may support a few cells capable of marginal hail,
the storms in general are forecast to be disorganized, with little
waning large-scale support. As such, a watch is unlikely.

..Jewell/Hart.. 08/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43139531 43569511 43919503 44299513 44589503 44869447
44929384 44789333 44479294 44079273 43679281 43369326
43149395 43039443 42959497 43139531



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