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ACUS11 KWNS 212059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212059
VAZ000-MDZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1338
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Areas affected...VA...Southern MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212059Z - 212300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms will continue into early
evening, with a primary threat of isolated damaging wind gusts.
Watch issuance is not anticipated unless significant intensification
occurs.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of VA
into southern MD at 21Z. The environment is characterized by rich
low-level moisture, which is supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg,
despite the presence of weak midlevel lapse rates. The southern
fringe of strong midlevel flow is impinging upon this region,
resulting in effective shear of 25-35 kt, which will support some
storm organization with the strongest cells. The hail threat should
remain minimal due to warm temperatures aloft, with isolated
damaging wind gusts the primary threat. A brief tornado also cannot
be ruled out with any storm interacting with a convective outflow
boundary draped from northern VA into southern MD. The overall
threat is currently expected to remain too marginal for watch
issuance.

..Dean/Guyer.. 08/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37557975 38257931 38837825 38917758 38557670 37677593
37347604 37137671 36877777 37207828 37337902 37357959
37557975



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ACUS11 KWNS 212104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212103 COR
VAZ000-MDZ000-212300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1338
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0403 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Areas affected...VA...Southern MD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 212103Z - 212300Z

CORRECTED FOR MCD DELINEATION

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms will continue into early
evening, with a primary threat of isolated damaging wind gusts.
Watch issuance is not anticipated unless significant intensification
occurs.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of VA
into southern MD at 21Z. The environment is characterized by rich
low-level moisture, which is supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg,
despite the presence of weak midlevel lapse rates. The southern
fringe of strong midlevel flow is impinging upon this region,
resulting in effective shear of 25-35 kt, which will support some
storm organization with the strongest cells. The hail threat should
remain minimal due to warm temperatures aloft, with isolated
damaging wind gusts the primary threat. A brief tornado also cannot
be ruled out with any storm interacting with a convective outflow
boundary draped from northern VA into southern MD. The overall
threat is currently expected to remain too marginal for watch
issuance.

..Dean/Guyer.. 08/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 37557975 38257931 38237873 38387771 38557670 37677593
37347604 37137671 36877777 37207828 37337902 37357959
37557975



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