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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0293

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, April 29, 2018 18:40:54
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    ACUS11 KWNS 291840
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291840
    MTZ000-WYZ000-292115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0293
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 PM CDT Sun Apr 29 2018

    Areas affected...Southeastern Montana and adjacent portions of
    northeast Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 291840Z - 292115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk for thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail
    and strong surface gusts is expected to increase by 3-4 PM MDT. Due
    to relatively weak instability, and expected sparse coverage of
    stronger storms, a watch is not anticipated, but trends will
    continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Embedded within broader scale cyclonic mid/upper flow,
    a short wave perturbation is in the process of pivoting across and
    northeast of the Big Horn Basin vicinity. Associated forcing for
    ascent is contributing to deepening convection, including a few
    thunderstorms, in the presence of gradual weak boundary layer
    destabilization. During the next few hours, potential for stronger thunderstorm development is expected to become focused within
    somewhat more moist northerly low-level upslope to the northeast of
    the Big Horns. Larger CAPE (generally on the order of 500
    J/kg...perhaps locally up to 1000 J/kg) and stronger vertical shear
    beneath 30-40 kt southerly mid-level flow may allow for one or two
    storms to take on supercellular structures, particularly by the
    21-22Z time frame near/north of the eastern Montana/Wyoming border
    area. This probably will be accompanied by a risk for severe hail
    and locally strong surface gusts, as activity slowly develops north/northeastward.

    ..Kerr/Grams.. 04/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...

    LAT...LON 45720853 46150742 46280601 46150479 45790417 44840454
    44350558 44190675 45720853



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, April 08, 2019 20:23:12
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082022
    NCZ000-VAZ000-082145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0293
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2019

    Areas affected...Central NC...South-Central/Central VA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45...

    Valid 082022Z - 082145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 45
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail continues
    across central NC and south-central/central VA.

    DISCUSSION...Predominantly multi-cellular has developed across
    central NC thus far but convective trends are suggesting a
    transition to more linear segments may be underway. This transition
    is likely a result of slightly stronger flow aloft and increased
    large-scale forcing for ascent. As this transition occurs, the more
    organized character of the line segments could lead to an increased
    potential for damaging wind gusts. Occasional hail is also possible
    during the early stage of any new development as well as a result of
    brief updraft intensification due to cell interactions.

    ..Mosier.. 04/08/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35258114 37008008 37667903 36907802 34937952 35258114



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