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ACUS11 KWNS 170341
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170340
ILZ000-MOZ000-170545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1305
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018

Areas affected...Parts of east central Missouri and southern/central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 170340Z - 170545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storm
development is possible through Midnight to 2-3 AM CDT. While the
severe weather threat seems limited enough that a watch is not
currently anticipated, trends will continue to be monitored.

DISCUSSION...A mid-level closed low now over central Iowa is
forecast to gradually turn eastward into the middle Mississippi
Valley through 06-09Z. As it does, it appears that associated
forcing for ascent will continue to support scattered vigorous
thunderstorm activity, which is already ongoing in an arcing band
across northern through west central Illinois. Ahead of this band,
the boundary layer remains relatively warm with surface temperatures
in the upper 70s to around 80f in a narrow corridor, from around the
St. Louis area northeastward through central Illinois. Coupled with
dew points in the lower/mid 70s, this appears to be supporting
moderate to large CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.

Although shear is still somewhat modest, the eastward progression of
a belt of 30-40 kt flow in the 700-500 mb layer may contribute to at
least some strengthening before the mid-level forcing and associated
convection progresses through the lingering instability axis
overnight. This could be accompanied by at least a short-lived
period with some increase in potential for storms capable of
producing severe hail and perhaps locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 39019044 39468966 40128899 40878834 40338769 38948821
37888888 37659004 38199054 39019044



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