This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1534341830-1928-41
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 151403
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151403
NEZ000-SDZ000-151630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1293
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 AM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Areas affected...Southwestern South Dakota...extreme northwest
Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151403Z - 151630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms capable of producing mainly severe
hail are expected to persist along/north of the South
Dakota/Nebraska border for at least a few more hours. A WW issuance
is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms are currently ongoing across
Fall River County, to Mellette County South Dakota. These storms
have shown signs of organization/persistence, with up to 1.0-1.5
inch diameter MRMS-MESH occasionally noted with some of the stronger
cells.

An eastward propagating 500 mb shortwave trough and associated vort
max, currently located across northeast Wyoming, has provided deep
layer ascent to initiate this convection. Storms are currently
rooted above a stable boundary layer, most likely above 850 mb (as
indicated by 1300 UTC PFC RAP guidance). With up to around 500 J/kg
MUCAPE, 30 knots of bulk effective shear, and continued deep-layer
ascent associated with the vort max present across the discussion
area, storms may persist for at least a few more hours, bearing a
potential for at least marginally severe hail. Given the isolated
and marginal extent of the severe hail threat, a WW issuance is not
expected at this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 43050364 43350351 43450279 43560219 43720144 43850092
43770055 43679978 43409962 43109957 42839974 42840147
42780217 42930341 43050364



------------=_1534341830-1928-41
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1534341830-1928-41--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)