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ACUS11 KWNS 150412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150412
NMZ000-150515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

Areas affected...Parts of northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 150412Z - 150515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts and brief hail possible for an
hour or two more this evening. A watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A small linear/bowing cluster is moving east/southeast
across Colfax Co, NM around 20 kt late this evening. Despite
increasing surface-based inhibition, forced ascent along the leading
edge of the system's cold pool has been sufficient for parcels to
utilize weak elevated buoyancy. Additionally, an embedded bookend
vortex south of Raton is likely enhancing rear inflow into the
system. Combined with residual steep lapse rates above a thin,
nocturnally cooled surface layer, this convective system evolution
has been favorable for a few stronger gusts, with even a severe gust
(50 kt) reported at KRTN at 0338Z. Isolated damaging gusts and brief
hail may remain possible for another hour or two, before further
nocturnal destabilization ends the threat.

..Picca/Grams.. 08/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36750494 36880436 36880374 36620341 36080319 35730341
35700423 36140475 36750494



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