1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1285

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, August 14, 2018 16:11:09
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1534263073-43378-507
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 141611
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141610
    NCZ000-141815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1285
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1110 AM CDT Tue Aug 14 2018

    Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 141610Z - 141815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage over the next
    few hours with isolated severe hail or wind possible.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows an expanding CU field across
    central and southeast NC, with the northern edge coincident with
    more substantial moisture and acting as an effective warm front.
    Continued heating will result in moderate instability, which will
    favor strong updrafts. As of 16Z, an isolated cell was already
    ongoing across central NC, and this storms should persist as it
    travels eastward along the lifting boundary. Other cells may
    eventually develop on its southwest flank, where TCU were developing
    toward the SC border. West/southwest 850 mb flow will result in weak
    warm advection into northeast NC as well, supporting any cells that
    move leftward into that area.

    Shear profiles are only marginally supportive of long-lived storm
    potential as midlevel flow is around 35 kt with weak low-level
    winds. However, increasing instability going into the peak heating
    hours and ample precipitable water should allow storms to be
    maintained for a while, propagating eastward with strong outflow and
    marginal hail.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 08/14/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

    LAT...LON 35707897 35887861 36257685 36187639 35917605 35507586
    34937603 34597652 34517712 34527767 34667883 34737925
    35007937 35327935 35707897



    ------------=_1534263073-43378-507
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1534263073-43378-507--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)