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ACUS11 KWNS 121818
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121818
VAZ000-NCZ000-122045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0118 PM CDT Sun Aug 12 2018

Areas affected...Much of central Virginia into north-central North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 121818Z - 122045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce marginally severe wind or hail,
but the overall threat does not appear to warrant a watch.

DISCUSSION...Convective trends have increased markedly over the past
hour, with scattered strong storms extending from northern Virginia
into northwest North Carolina. Daytime heating, as well as the
influence of height falls aloft have contributed to the increase in
storms. Winds in the low-level will remain weak, but mid to upper
level winds are resulting in elongated, straight hodographs.
Temperatures aloft are seasonably cool and supportive of vigorous
updrafts given ample low-level moisture, and the wind profiles are
supportive of both cells and small line segments. The slow movement
of the storms coupled with current tendencies for cellular mode
suggest only a localized wind threat, while the stronger cells may
contain marginal hail cores. The overall trend should be for
sporadic, disorganized convection, with isolated severe reports
expected.

..Jewell/Hart.. 08/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 37957922 38557843 38727812 38717786 38577741 38297732
37837742 37477753 36937770 36437819 36097915 35918069
36008123 36438114 37328016 37957922



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