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ACUS11 KWNS 111857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111856
NCZ000-VAZ000-112130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat Aug 11 2018

Areas affected...Far southern Virginia...central and eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 111856Z - 112130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms with isolated damaging wind gusts
are possible through the mid to late afternoon hours. A WW issuance
is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms have recently developed in tandem with
the diurnal heating cycle, as most locations have either reached or
exceeded their convective temperatures. With continued surface
heating, storms will continue to develop across the discussion area
for the next several hours. Rich, deep moisture (extending up to 850
mb) is in place across the region, fostering MLCAPE values of at
least 2000-2500 J/kg in many locales. Though mid-level lapse rates
are rather poor (i.e 5.0-5.5 C/km), low-level lapse rates on the
order of 7.5-8.0 C/km are common across the discussion area, with
decent amounts of moisture extending well into the troposphere (i.e
up to 500 mb), contributing to precipitable water values around 2
inches.

The steep-low level lapse rates and deep moisture may contribute to
water loaded downdrafts, the strongest of which may cause damaging
wind gusts. Given the isolated nature for severe winds, and overall
lack of appreciable low-level or deep-layer based shear to support
updraft organization/longevity, a WW issuance is not anticipated at
this time.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 08/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 34837930 35618018 36268036 36827971 36907809 36847705
36187592 35597601 35007657 34587713 34617841 34837930



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